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GENEVA / MOSCOW — For the first time in over half a century, the world’s two largest nuclear powers are no longer restrained by legally binding limits on their atomic arsenals. At midnight on February 5, 2026, the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) officially expired, marking what UN officials call a “grave moment” for human history.
The expiration ends a 15-year era of transparency and caps, leaving the United States and Russia—who together hold roughly 90% of the world’s nuclear warheads—without a formal framework to prevent an unconstrained arms race.
“No Longer Bound”: The Kremlin’s Stance
In a formal statement released as the clock ran out, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared that it now considers itself “no longer bound” by the treaty’s obligations.
Moscow attributed the collapse to “extremely hostile” policies from Washington, citing U.S. support for Ukraine and destabilizing moves in missile defense. While President Vladimir Putin had previously suggested a one-year “voluntary” adherence to the treaty’s limits, the Kremlin noted today that it received no formalized response from the Trump administration to codify such a pause.
“In the current circumstances, the parties are free to choose their next steps. Russia will act in a balanced manner, but we remain ready to take military-technical measures to counter national security threats.”
— Official Statement, Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs
A “Grave Moment” for Global Security
UN Secretary-General António Guterres issued a stark warning, noting that the dissolution of these “decades of achievement” could not come at a worse time.
- Zero Transparency: The loss of on-site inspections and data exchanges means intelligence agencies must now rely on “worst-case assessments” rather than verified facts.
- The China Factor: The U.S. has expressed reluctance to enter new bilateral deals that do not include China’s rapidly expanding nuclear force.
- Rapid Escalation: Analysts at the Union of Concerned Scientists warn that without caps, both nations could theoretically double their deployed warheads within a few years.
The Nuclear Balance at Expiry
| *Deployed Warheads – New START Limit -1,550 | Both sides roughly compliant |
| *Deployed Launchers (ICBMs, SLBMs, Bombers) New START Limit – 700 | Both sides roughly compliant |
Russia: Total Nuclear Inventory~5,500
USA: Total Nuclear Inventory ~5,100
What Happens Next?
The focus now shifts to whether a “gentleman’s agreement” will persist or if the world is entering a “Three-Body” arms race involving the U.S., Russia, and China. While President Trump has signaled a desire for a “better agreement,” the complex nature of nuclear diplomacy suggests that any new deal could take years to negotiate—years the world may not have.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is expected to meet later this month to evaluate the Doomsday Clock in light of today’s development.
