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The Economic Survey 2025-26, tabled in Parliament today by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, presents a picture of a “Goldilocks” economy—characterized by high growth and low inflation. Despite a volatile global landscape marked by trade tensions and geopolitical shifts, the Survey projects a robust growth trajectory for India, firmly establishing it as a global outlier.
Key Projections & Macroeconomic Stability
The Survey estimates India’s real GDP growth for the current fiscal year (FY26) at a resilient 7.4% to 7.8%, a significant leap from previous conservative estimates. This momentum is expected to settle into a steady 6.6% to 7.0% range for FY27.
Fiscal Discipline: The government remains committed to its glide path, targeting a fiscal deficit of 4.4% of GDP for FY26, down from 4.8% last year.
Inflation Control: Headline inflation has softened dramatically, reaching a decade-low of 1.7% to 2.1% in recent months, well within the RBI’s comfort zone.
External Strength: Foreign exchange reserves remain formidable at approximately $635–$700 billion, providing a solid cushion against global capital outflows.
The Two Pillars: Infrastructure & Green Transition
The Survey explicitly identifies Capital Expenditure (Capex) and the Green Energy Shift as the twin engines of India’s fiscal roadmap:
Infrastructure Powerhouse: With an allocation of ₹11.11 lakh crore, the government has front-loaded spending on roads, railways (including 434 new corridor projects), and dedicated freight corridors. This “supply-side push” is designed to reduce logistics costs and attract private investment.
Industrialization of Climate Action: The Survey highlights a shift where climate policy and industrial policy have merged. Key initiatives include:
Nuclear Energy Mission: A goal of 100 GW of nuclear capacity by 2047, with a focus on Small Modular Reactors (SMRs).
National Manufacturing Mission: Aimed at building a domestic ecosystem for EV batteries, solar PV cells, and green hydrogen.
Maritime Development Fund: A ₹25,000 crore initiative to promote green shipping and sustainable shipbuilding.
Sectoral Performance & Challenges
While the outlook is optimistic, the Survey flags specific areas requiring attention to sustain the “Viksit Bharat” (Developed India) vision by 2047.
Services – Contributes 60% of GVA; surging professional and financial services.
Agriculture– Resilient,Expected growth of 3.8%; focus on climate-resilient seeds and pulses.
Manufacturing – Accelerating,GVA growth at 9.1%; boosted by PLI schemes and digital infrastructure.
Employment – Status Improving- “Unemployment hit a low of 4.7% in late 2025, led by rising female participation.”
